2013 American League Midseason Awards

It's Friday afternoon, the very end of the All-Star break, meaning it's now been two and a half days without any baseball, or four and a half, if you choose not to count the All-Star Game itself. Given how long these days feel, I don't know how I ever get through the winter months. As we take out final breaths before the second half begins, I figured I'd hand out my picks for midseason awards in each league. I'll also try my hand at predicting who actually wins each award at the end of the season. Predictions are fun, because they give people something to point at and laugh about later. I posted my National League choices earlier today, now for my American League selections.

MVP

Chris Davis having an awfully impressive season, and while I expect he'll fall off a bit, I don't think he's going to collapse. He's absolutely in this race. Mike Trout doesn't seem to be getting as much attention as he did last year, but his hitting numbers are practically identical to last season's (2012: .326/.399/.564; 2013: .322/.399/.565) and he could wind up with a lot of supporters again. I sided with Trout last season, and it wasn't a very difficult decision. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year, and that's a cool accomplishment, but it didn't mean he was the better player. Cabrera though, you may or may not have noticed, has been even better this season. His .365 BA, .458 OBP, and .674 SLG would all be career highs, should he keep this up. His wRC+ of 202 is incredible. The last AL player with a number that high was Frank Thomas in the strike-shortened 1994 season. Before that, you have to go back to Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle in 1957.

My choice: Miguel Cabrera

Others who'd be on my ballot: Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Felix Hernandez, Manny Machado, Joe Mauer, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Mike Trout

Who actually wins it at season's end: Miguel Cabrera. I expect his production to dip (how could it not?), but he's still going to post massive numbers and his team is likely headed to the playoffs (shouldn't matter in this discussion, but does). He's got a 43 point lead in batting average (over Trout), and Davis is the only player ahead of him in home runs (37 to 30) or within shouting distance of him in RBI (Cabrera leads 95-93, no one else has more than 72), which means he could win his second consecutive Triple Crown. Just because BA and RBI aren't the most telling hitting numbers out there, doesn't mean that wouldn't be a very, very cool accomplishment.

Cy Young

There are a lot of candidates here. Yu Darvish has incredible strikeouts numbers and a strong overall profile, but needs to cut back on the number of home runs he's allowing if he's going to win. Justin Verlander hasn't been as sharp as he was the last couple years, but has also had very poor luck on balls in play, further deflating his numbers. I wouldn't entirely count him out though, because no one's best is better than his. Derek Holland and Bartolo Colon (age 40!) are both pitching really well too. Clay Buchholz and Anibal Sanchez have the best numbers on a per-inning basis, but injuries have kept either of them from throwing enough innings for me to consider them. For me, three guys have created a little distance between themselves and the field:

Felix Hernandez: 9.09 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 2.66 FIP, 149 ERA+
Chris Sale: 9.83 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 2.94 FIP, 154 ERA+

Max Scherzer: 10.55 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 2.68 FIP, 133 ERA+

Hernandez has also thrown a few more innings (138.2) than Sale (120.0) or Scherzer (129.2), which is enough of a difference to give him a slight edge in my book.

My choice: Felix Hernandez

Others who'd be on my ballot: Chris Sale and Max Scherzer

Who actually wins it at season's end: Felix Hernandez. If the voting were held right now, Scherzer would win, because in addition to a strong ERA and the second-most strikeouts in the AL, he's got a shiny 13-1 record, which is toon shiny a bauble for many voters to ignore (even though they should). Scherzer's not going to finish 23-2 though, and I think Felix out-pitches him over the second half and stays close enough in the win department (he's only three behind) to win his second Cy Young.

Rookie of the Year

Among position players, Boston's Jose Iglesias certainly has the best numbers, with a .367/.417/.461 line). Leonys Martin (Texas) has put up solid offense while also playing strong defense in centerfield. Nick Franklin (Seattle) and Yan Gomes (Cleveland) have also hit well, while successfully covering tough positions (2B and C, respectively). Among pitchers, you've got starters like Dan Straily (Oakland), who's been about league average and in the rotation almost the entire season, and Chris Archer (Tampa Bay), who's been well above average since being called up at the start of June. Tampa Bay also has Alex Torres, who's allowed just one run in 26.1 innings of relief. For now, I think Iglesias has to get the call, the offense he's provided is especially valuable coming from a shortstop.

My choice: Jose Iglesias

Others who'd be on my ballot: Leonys Martin and Alex Torres

Who actually wins it at season's end: Chris Archer. Iglesias has a .414 BABIP, which isn't going to last. Plus in his last 20 games, his line is just .267/.317/.293. He's begun falling already, and I expect that to continue, though his end-of-season numbers should still be good. Archer has been great, only a lack of innings keeps him off my ballot at the moment. I expect him to continue to pitch well and by the end of the season he'll have thrown enough innings to draw more attention.

2013 National League Midseason Awards

It's Friday afternoon, the very end of the All-Star break, meaning it's now been two and a half days without any baseball, or four and a half, if you choose not to count the All-Star Game itself. Given how long these days feel, I don't know how I ever get through the winter months. As we take out final breaths before the second half begins, I figured I'd hand out my picks for midseason awards in each league. I'll also try my hand at predicting who actually wins each award at the end of the season. Predictions are fun, because they give people something to point at and laugh about later. I'll start with the National League, then post my choices in the American League later today.

MVP

This is a really tough race right now, with close to ten guys you can make a reasonable case for. The NL's top pitchers should all be in the conversation (more on them in a minute), and among position players, the choice really comes down to how you value various components of the game. Buster Posey has put up great numbers, while mostly playing catcher, baseball's most demanding position. Yadier Molina hasn't hit quite as well as Posey, but has still been very good at the plate, and is the best defender at the position, maybe at any position. Carlos Gomez was already been a great fielder and base runner, but he's suddenly become a very good hitter as well, and leads the league in bWAR. Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Gonzalez are each in the discussion on the NL's best hitters, and do well in other facets of the game too. Andrew McCutchen, also playing great I'm going with David Wright though. He's provided as much value on offense as anyone, and aside from the two catchers, he plays the most challenging defensive position, and plays it well.

My choice: David Wright

Others who'd be on my ballot: Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright

Who actually wins it at season's end: Andrew McCutchen. I think he'll keep posting solid numbers and if the Pirates make the playoffs for the first time in 21 years, he'll have a powerful narrative. Guys like Wright and Gomez have no shot, because their teams are too bad, and while that shouldn't matter to voters, it will.

Cy Young

Like the MVP race, this one is really too close to call right now. Unlike the MVP race, there are really only three candidates (with apologies to Cliff Lee, who's having another fine year). Matt Harvey just started the All-Star Game, and has exploded on the scene this season. The other two have been great  pitchers for a while now. Here are some pertinent figures for each:

Matt Harvey: 10.18 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.48 HR/9, 153 ERA+, 2.17 FIP

Clayton Kershaw: 8.61 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 181 ERA+, 2.52 FIP

Adam Wainwright: 7.98 K/9, 0.98 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9, 149 ERA+, 2.23 FIP

Kershaw holds the lead in bWAR, while Wainwright is tops in fWAR. I don't know how you mount a strong argument for any one of them over the two others, they're all very reasonable choices. I tend to fall more to the ERA+ side of things than the FIP side, when rating players' past performance, and Kershaw has the edge there, so I'm backing him.

My choice: Clayton Kershaw

Others who'd be on my ballot: Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright

Who for actually wins it at season's end: Adam Wainwright. I have to think Matt Harvey's season will get stopped early due to him hitting some sort of innings limit, which will make it hard for him to win. Between the other two, Wainwright has two factors working to his advantage, I think. The lesser is that he hasn't won the award before, and I think some voters like to see new winners. The bigger factor is that he currently holds a 12-8 lead on Kershaw in wins, which shouldn't matter to voters, but clearly do. Wainwright is on pace to win 20 or 21, while Kershaw will have a hard time getting to more than 17 or so.

Rookie of the Year

Probably the biggest story in baseball over the last month and a half has been Yasiel Puig, who didn't debut until June 3rd, but has already hit 8 home runs while putting up a line of .391/.422/.616 playing half his games in a pitchers' park. If he's anywhere near that kind of player in the second half, he'll deserve to run away with this award, and maybe draw some attention down-ballot in the MVP race. I'm not yet ready to put him above a couple pitchers who've been performing really well all season though: Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller. Like the trio I mentioned for the Cy Young, these two are awfully hard to separate, they've even thrown an identical number of innings thus far. Miller looks just a little better when you look at metrics like FIP, because his strikeout and walk numbers are just a bit better than Fernandez's. Fernandez has allowed fewer runs though, and there's a noticeable difference between them when looking at a metric like ERA+. Just as that was the deciding factor in my Cy Young vote, it makes the difference here.

My choice: Jose Fernandez

Others who'd be on my ballot: Shelby Miller, Yasiel Puig

Who for actually wins it at season's end: Yasiel Puig. Fernandez is just 20 years old, and won't be allowed to pitch all the way to the season, likely being shutdown around the start of September. In a race with multiple strong candidates, that could sink him. Puig is going to slow down, a  .472 BABIP isn't sustainable for anyone and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is somewhat alarming. Still, I think he'll maintain strong enough production to end up with 20+ HR and his rate stats will still be very impressive. Miller is likely to regress downwards a bit as well, and I think Puig wins this battle.

Orioles' Davis and Machado on Record-Breaking Paces

The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were one of the most surprising playoff teams I can remember. Baltimore hadn't finished with a winning record since 1997 and had finished last in the AL East every season from 2008 to 2011, but managed to win 93 games and a spot in the wildcard game (which they then won). They did it without having a real star. Adam Jones was their top guy, but he probably wasn't one of the 20 best players in the American League (though he did finish 6th in the MVP balloting). In 2013, the O's are contending again, but this time they've also got two legitimate MVP candidates, each of whom is on an incredible pace: Chris Davis and Manny Machado.

CHRIS DAVIS

Just 90 games into the schedule, Chris Davis has already hit 33 home runs, five more than any other player. That puts him on pace for 59. Barry Bonds' MLB record of 73 home runs is out of reach, but Roger Maris' American League record of 61 isn't, nor is Brady Anderson's franchise record* of 50 (in 1996). If Davis hits home runs at 70% the rate he's hit them so far this year, he'll beat Anderson's mark. Only four Orioles have ever hit even 40 home runs, only an injury can keep Davis from joining that company.

*All Orioles' records I refer to in this post also include the 52 seasons the team spent as the St. Louis Browns and their one year as the Milwaukee Brewers (in 1901... Who knew?!).

It hasn't just been home runs though. Davis has also hit 26 doubles, giving him 59 extra-base hits so far and putting him on pace for 106. That would be the 5th-most ever and the most in the American League since Lou Gehrig in 1927. The Orioles' record for extra-base hits is 92 (also set by Brady Anderson in 1996). As with home runs, maintaining even 70% of his current pace over the rest of the season would allow Davis to break the franchise record for extra-base hits.

All told, 57.8% of Davis' hits this year have been of the extra-base variety. I wouldn't say that's a category where we need to consider anything a record, but only seven players in history have had a season with a percentage that high (Babe Ruth, Albert Belle, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Pena, and Jose Bautista), topped by Bonds' incredible 68.6% in 2001.

All those extra-base hits have helped Davis to 227 total bases already, putting him on pace for 409, which would be the highest total in the American League since Joe DiMaggio in 1937. No AL player has reached 400 total bases since Jim Rice in 1978 (incredibly, five NL players got there between 1997 and 2001, topped by Sammy Sosa's 425 in 2001). The Orioles' record for total bases is 399, set by George Sisler way back in 1920. Brady Anderson's 1996 places second on the list, at 369.

Davis is currently slugging .703. Only seven players have cleared .700 since expansion began in 1961 (Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, and Albert Belle). The Orioles' record is .652, by Goose Goslin in 1930. If Davis continues to collect at bats at the same rate as he has so far this season, he'd need to slug ~.590 over the rest of the season to break that mark. Davis 1.095 OPS would also break the franchise record, which is currently 1.082, also set by George Sisler in 1920.

MANNY MACHADO

Manny Machado hasn't had the same overall power as Davis, but he's hit a massive amount of doubles and is having one of the greatest seasons ever by a player so young (Machado turned 21 last week, 2013 is considered his age-20 season).

Machado already has 39 doubles. That puts him on pace for 70. The Major League record for doubles is 67, set by Earl Webb in 1931. No player has hit 60+ since 1936 and the Orioles' record is 56, set by Brian Roberts in 2009. Only three players in franchise history have hit 50+ doubles, but Machado is now an awfully good bet to become the fourth.

The most doubles by a player as young as Machado is 54, by Alex Rodriguez in 1996. Vada Pinson, Ted Williams, Cesar Cedeno, and Johnny Bench are the only other players that young to hit even 40 doubles, so Machado has already climbed to 6th place on that list.

Machado has 122 hits already, putting him on pace for 220. Alex Rodriguez holds the highest mark for 20 or younger players here too, with 215 hits. Ty Cobb, Buddy Lewis, Vada Pinson, and Al Kaline are the only others to get to 200 hits.

Machado is also playing strong defense at 3B, and when you look at his all around play, he's already at 5.0 bWAR Baseball-Reference) and 4.2 fWAR (Fangraphs). The top six seasons by a 20-year-old are the same at both sites (albeit in a slightly different order and with slightly different numbers), they belong to Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez, Al Kaline, Ted Williams, Mel Ott, and Ty Cobb. That's incredible company, and Machado is well on his way to joining them.