MLB on Record Pace for Extra-Inning Games in 2013


Last Saturday the Marlins and Mets played 20 innings and the Blue Jays and Rangers played 18. I found myself wondering how often two games on the same day had each gone so many innings. I began researching and was fairly quickly able to find an answer to that question*, but (as is often the case for me) then I found myself wondering about other extra-inning game tidbits. Suddenly I was immersed in hours and hours of research. One thing I discovered while working my way through the mountain of data I wanted to go through: 2013 is on pace to have more extra-inning games than any season in MLB history.

*Since 1916, (as far back as I can go using Baseball-Reference's wonderful Play Index database), only once before had two games on the same day gone 18+ innings. That was August 15, 2006, when the Diamondbacks and Rockies and the Cubs and Astros each played exactly 18 frames.

As of this morning (Friday, June 14), there have been 110 extra-inning games around baseball so far this season, out of 983 total games played (out of 2,430 scheduled to be played over the entire season). That means MLB is on pace for 272 extra-inning games.

Seasons with the highest number of extra-inning games*:


2011: 237
1986: 220
1991: 220
2007: 220
2010: 220

*As I said above, the Play Index for this sort of thing dates to 1916, so all figures you see are from then on.

As you can see, 2013 isn't just on pace to break the record, it's on pace to shatter it. Regression to the mean tells us that anyone or anything on a record pace is likely to see their pace fall off. 2013 is far enough ahead of pace though, even as the pace slows, it's still got a very good shot at breaking the record.

In addition to the two marathon games from last Saturday that I already mentioned, there have also been  two other games in 2013 that went 18+ innings (including the A's/Yankees contest just yesterday). That seems like a lot of extensively-long games for such a short timeframe, three such games in under a week and four of them in under two months.

Seasons with the highest number of 18-inning (or longer) games:


1967: 9
1972: 6
1918: 5

2013 is on pace for a record 10 such games and is already in a tie for the fourth-most marathon games (1969, 1971, 1973, 1984, 1985, and 2006 also had 4 games last 18+ innings).

A record pace for both extra-inning games and especially long games seems like a recipe for also playing the highest number of total extra innings (a 10-inning game being 1 extra inning, an 11-inning game being 2 extra innings, etc.)

Seasons with the highest number of total extra innings:


1980: 531
1976: 519
1982: 518
1992: 515
2011: 504

In 2013 there have been 245 total extra innings thus far, putting the season on pace for 606, far beyond the current record. Regression to the mean will almost certainly bring that number down, but perhaps not so much that we still don't get more extra innings than in any previous season.

The extra-inning games in 2013 haven't actually been particularly long though, despite their having already been 4 games that went 18+ innings. If you divide the 245 total extra innings thus far by the 110 extra-inning games that have taken place, you get an average of 2.227 extra innings per extra-inning game in 2013.

Seasons with the highest average number of extra innings in extra-inning games:


1967: 2.698
1918: 2.593
1972: 2.586
1919: 2.573
1976: 2.569

2013 ranks only 43rd out of the 98 seasons, meaning that despite those 4 marathon games, the average extra-inning game this season has had a fairly normal number of extra innings.

How do you get a 'normal' number of extra innings per extra-inning game when you've got a (relatively) high number of marathons in there? By having a ton of games go exactly 10 innings (the shortest possible extra-inning game, of course). 64 of the 110 extra-inning games so far in 2013 have gone exactly 10 innings. That works out to 58.2%. The highest figure for any previous season is 56.7%, from 1930. So, you have more super-long games than usual, but also more 10-inning games.

There's been a relative shortage of games lasting 11 to 13 innings. Just 32 so far in 2013, putting the season on pace for 79. The last time there were fewer games of 11 to 13 innings than that (not including strike-shortened season was way back in 1968, when there were still only 20 teams.

And THAT brings me to the final thing to be pointed out, something I'm sure some of you have been thinking to yourself since I first mentioned that 2013 was on pace to have a record number of extra-inning games: There are 30 teams now and they each play a 162-game schedule. Until 1961 there were only 16 teams (and they played a shorter schedule too). It wasn't until 1998 that MLB reached it's current size, so it's to be expected that more recent seasons would have a higher number of extra-inning games. What if we look at the percentage of total games that are going extra innings, does 2013 still stand out?

Seasons in which the highest percentage of games went extra innings:


1943: 13.37%
1957: 13.09%
1918: 11.73%
1942: 11.60%
1916: 11.57%

So far in 2013, 11.19% of all games have gone to extra innings, which would rank 6th out of the 98 seasons here. It's not quite a record rate, but it is the highest in 56 years. The next-highest figure from the 2000s is all the way down at 34th on the list (2011, 9.76%) and other year from the 2000s places anywhere in the top half of the rankings.

Summary:


Extra-inning games so far in 2013: 110
Full-season pace: 272
MLB record: 237 (2011)

Total extra innings so far in 2013: 245
Full-season pace: 606
MLB record: 531 (1980)

Number of extra innings per extra-inning game so far in 2013: 2.227
MLB record: 2.698 (1967)

Percentage of total games that have gone to extra innings so far in 2013: 11.19%
MLB record: 13.37% (1943)

One way of looking at this is to say that in 2013 we're on pace to get more baseball than we've ever gotten before, which is just about the best news I can think of.

The Maddux Undone by Defense (AKA: The Ohka)

A Maddux requires that a pitcher go the distance, throw fewer than 100 pitches, and not allow any runs. Because pitch count records from earlier are scarce, 1988 is the start of the Maddux-era for MLB. Since then there have been 269 Madduxes. There have also been 1,844 shutouts in which the pitcher threw 100+ pitches and there have been 265 complete games in which a starter threw fewer than 100 pitches, but allowed at least one run*. In 18 of those 265 games though, the runs allowed were unearned. Those games do not qualify as Madduxes, but I think they deserve at least a brief mention.

* Cliff Lee deserves special  mention for managing to get through an entire game on just 95 pitches back in 2010, while still allowing 6 runs.

To be clear, none of the games I'm about to list qualify as a Maddux, but you can find lots of information on performances that do qualify here and here, if you're interested. And thanks to Baseball-Reference, whose Play Index makes tracking these things down manageable.

June 7, 1988: Scott Bailes (Indians) - 88 pitches, 3 runs due to error by Julio Franco

July 18, 1989: Orel Hershiser (Dodgers) - 98 pitches, 1 run due to error by Jeff Hamilton

July 21, 1989: John Smiley (Pirates) - 98 pitches, 1 run due to errors by Rey Quinones and Barry Bonds

June 1, 1991: Greg Swindell (Indians) - 90 pitches, 1 run due to error by Carlos Baerga

May 7, 1993: Bill Wegman (Brewers) - 94 pitches, 1 run due to error by Matt Mieske

August 28, 1993: Steve Avery (Braves) - 91 pitches, 1 run due to error by Jeff Blauser

September 9, 1993: Darryl Kile (Astros) - 83 pitches, 1 run due to error by Jeff Bagwell

April 14, 1994: Greg Maddux (Braves) - 96 pitches, 1 run due to error by Deion Sanders

June 26, 1994: Mike Mussina (Orioles) - 97 pitches, 1 run due to error by Jeffrey Hammonds

August 6, 1994: Frank Castillo (Cubs) - 98 pitches, 1 run due to error by Sammy Sosa

May 15, 1998: Jeff Suppan (Diamondbacks) - 93 pitches, 1 run due to errors by Jay Bell

June 5, 1998: Andy Pettitte (Yankees) - 91 pitches, 1 run due to error Chuck Knoblauch

August 6, 2000: Shawn Estes (Giants) - 95 pitches, 1 run due to error by Bill Mueller

June 29, 2003: Tomo Ohka (Expos) - 98 pitches, 2 runs due to errors by Edwards Guzman, Orlando Cabrera, Tomo Ohka, and Jamey Carroll

September 11, 2003: Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) - 93 pitches, 1 run due to error by Eric Hinske

September 26, 2003: Tomo Ohka (Expos) - 91 pitches, 1 run due to error by Henry Mateo

June 30, 2005: Freddy Garcia (White Sox) - 96 pitches, 1 run due to error by Pablo Ozuna

June 6, 2009: John Lannan (Nationals) - 96 pitches, 1 run due to error by Elijah Dukes

Tomo Ohka deserves recognition as the only pitcher to make the list twice, but he's also the only pitcher who made an error of their own in any of these games, and frankly, runs should probably be considered "earned" if the pitcher's own error led to it.

Bill Wegman has the distinction of being the only pitcher on this list who actually lost his game.

I'd also like to point out that 4 of these 18 games were undone by an error by someone named Jeff. Get it together, fellas!

It should come as no surprise to see Greg Maddux on this list, since no one worked their way through an entire game on so few pitches as often as he did. Of the 17 pitchers who appear on this list, 11 of them threw at least one actual Maddux at some point in their career: Maddux (13), Halladay (5), Mussina and Smiley (2), Avery, Garcia, Hershiser, Kile, Ohka, Suppan, and Swindell (1). That leaves Bailes, Castillo, Estes, Lannan, Pettitte, and Wegman as the unfortunate souls who lost their best chance at a Maddux due to a teammate's error.

It's been four years since anyone missed out on a Maddux because of an unearned run, let's hope that streak continues.